Take out the tariff refund and look again.

Two big shoe companies posted strong quarters. Some of the strength was a check from the US government.

The facts

• Deckers reported fiscal Q2 2027 (July to September 2026) on Oct 22. Revenue was $1.481 billion, up 3.5%.
• Hoka sales were $677.2 million, up 6.8%. Hoka wholesale rose 9%. Hoka direct to consumer rose 4%.
• EPS was $2.31. That includes $0.28 from an IEEPA tariff refund. Without it, EPS was $2.03.
• Deckers cut its full year revenue guide to $5.70 to $5.725 billion, from $5.86 to $5.91 billion. Hoka is now guided to high single digit growth, down from low double digit. Shares fell about 7% in premarket trading on Oct 23.
• On the call, management said Hoka is gaining share above $120 and losing share below $120. It chose not to match heavy discounting.
• Hoka's 2027 slate includes the Fly Pace at $115 in January and the Bondi Ultra X at $325 in June.
• Adidas reported Q3 2026 (July to September 2026) on Oct 29. Revenue rose 9% to a record €7.25 billion, 7% currency neutral. Operating profit rose 37% to €1.01 billion.
• About €200 million of that came from US tariff refunds. Adidas raised its full year operating profit outlook to about €2.5 billion from €2.3 billion. Running grew double digits within its Performance business.

Our take

Anyone who has stood at the shoe wall in a run shop knows the price on the box decides a lot. The earnings say the same thing. Here is what we see.

1. The refund is a one-time gift, not a trend. It lifted margin and EPS, not demand. Deckers revenue grew 3.5%, and the company still cut its year. Next year's comps will not have this help. Read every endurance brand's margin this season twice: once with the refund, once without.
2. The fight is under $120. Hoka says it wins above that line and loses below it. Its answer is a $115 shoe in January. Expect more brands to launch "value" trainers in the first half of 2027, and expect more promo pressure in run specialty because of it.
3. Wholesale is carrying the load. Hoka's wholesale grew more than twice as fast as its own channels, and Deckers plans to push into athletic specialty and sporting goods in spring 2027. That is more shelf space and less control of price. Run shops should ask what that means for their exclusives.

Sources: Motley Fool: Deckers Q2 FY2027 earnings call transcript, Oct 22, 2026; Pomegra: Deckers falls 7% as Hoka, UGG outlook cut, Oct 23, 2026; adidas: record results in the third quarter of 2026, Oct 29, 2026.